Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
PolymarketOpen, closes Nov 3, 2026$2.5M traded
Prices from on-chain trades on Polygon
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
No move of three points or more on the record.
The rules
Polymarket's rules, as the venue wrote them.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats.
If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included.
Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count.
If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
- Ticker
- pm_562802
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2026
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
93%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET. The venues are 0.7% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 93% · weight 78%
- Polymarket 94% · weight 22%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Kalshi
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