Will Democrats win the House in 2026?
Democratic PartyKalshiOpen, closes Feb 1, 202722.2M contracts traded
94%
Yes · +0.6 pts in 24 h · bid 94%, ask 94%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
87% to 90% (+3 pts)Sep 18, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
73% to 77% (+4 pts)May 19, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
76% to 73% (−3 pts)May 13, 11:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
80% to 75% (−5 pts)May 9, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S.
House.
See full rules for details.
Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
- Ticker
- CONTROLH-2026-D
- Closes
- Feb 1, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
94%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:23 AM ET. The venues are 1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 94% · weight 70%
- Polymarket 95% · weight 30%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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