angbot

US elections · Tuesday 3 November 2026

Live.

The races with Kalshi and Polymarket side by side, the Langbot consolidated probability where the markets are linked, and the events Langbot is hearing right now.

Refreshing every 5 seconds · as of 4:44:30 AM ET

Key races

Open election markets by volume, each venue's last price (or mid) in cents with its bid and ask. Consolidated where the feed links the same question on both venues; how it is measured.

  • Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

    Yes

    Kalshi99.6¢ mid99.3¢ bid · 99.9¢ askas of 4:09:23 AM ET
    Polymarket25¢ mid25¢ bid · 25¢ askas of 4:08:36 AM ET
    Consolidated65%venues 74.6¢ apartMethod

  • Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?

    Alaska US Senate

    Kalshi66¢ mid63¢ bid · 69¢ askas of 4:08:01 AM ET
    Polymarket70.5¢ mid61¢ bid · 80¢ askas of 4:05:40 AM ET
    Consolidated–Method

  • Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?

    Maine US Senate

    Kalshi49.5¢ mid46¢ bid · 53¢ askas of 4:08:02 AM ET
    Polymarket50¢ mid43¢ bid · 57¢ askas of 4:03:34 AM ET
    Consolidated–Method

  • Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?

    Michigan US Senate

    Kalshi79.5¢ mid77¢ bid · 82¢ askas of 4:07:16 AM ET
    Polymarket78¢ mid75¢ bid · 81¢ askas of 3:51:47 AM ET
    Consolidated80%Method

  • Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?

    Minnesota US Senate

    Kalshi39.5¢ mid38¢ bid · 41¢ askas of 4:10:02 AM ET
    Polymarket33.5¢ mid24¢ bid · 43¢ askas of 4:02:34 AM ET
    Consolidated–Method

  • Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?

    Montana US Senate

    Kalshi84¢ mid82¢ bid · 86¢ askas of 4:08:01 AM ET
    Polymarket81.5¢ mid77¢ bid · 86¢ askas of 3:51:47 AM ET
    Consolidated–Method

  • Closer Senate Race: Nebraska or Texas?

    Nebraska US Senate

    Kalshi69.5¢ mid66¢ bid · 73¢ askas of 3:58:21 AM ET
    Polymarket56.5¢ mid49¢ bid · 64¢ askas of 4:03:40 AM ET
    Consolidated–Method

  • Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

    Kalshi10¢ mid8¢ bid · 12¢ askas of 4:05:10 AM ET
    Polymarket10.5¢ mid10¢ bid · 11¢ askas of 4:10:02 AM ET
    Consolidated10%Method

  • Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

    Before Nov 3, 2026

    Kalshi1¢ mid1¢ askas of 4:10:02 AM ET
    Polymarket0.6¢ mid0.3¢ bid · 0.8¢ askas of 1:55:11 AM ET
    Consolidated–Method

  • Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?

    John Fetterman

    Kalshi9.7¢ mid9.5¢ bid · 9.9¢ askas of 2:35:00 AM ET
    Polymarket7.1¢ mid6.5¢ bid · 7.7¢ askas of 4:10:56 AM ET
    Consolidated7%Method

  • Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?

    Kalshi28.5¢ mid27¢ bid · 30¢ askas of 3:57:12 AM ET
    Polymarket23¢ mid22¢ bid · 24¢ askas of 3:51:47 AM ET
    Consolidated–Method

  • Kash Patel out by December 31?

    Before Jan 1, 2028

    Kalshi64¢ mid60¢ bid · 68¢ askas of 4:10:02 AM ET
    Polymarket17.5¢ mid17¢ bid · 18¢ askas of 4:09:41 AM ET
    Consolidated18%Method

  • Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

    Kalshi4.5¢ mid4¢ bid · 4.9¢ askas of 2:54:55 AM ET
    Polymarket3.1¢ mid3¢ bid · 3.2¢ askas of 4:10:56 AM ET
    Consolidated3%Method

  • Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

    Lee Jae Myung

    Kalshi3.5¢ mid2¢ bid · 5¢ askas of 4:09:02 AM ET
    Polymarket4¢ mid3.8¢ bid · 4.1¢ askas of 4:05:06 AM ET
    Consolidated4%Method

  • Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

    Lee Jae Myung

    Kalshi– mid
    Polymarket3.8¢ mid3.7¢ bid · 3.8¢ askas of 4:09:24 AM ET
    Consolidated4%Method

  • Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?

    Before Dec 1, 2026

    Kalshi24.5¢ mid22¢ bid · 27¢ askas of 4:08:37 AM ET
    Polymarket24¢ mid24¢ bid · 24¢ askas of 3:17:25 AM ET
    Consolidated25%Method

Every election market

Live now

Events with a line on air, the carriers Langbot hears them on, and the markets that settle on them.

Data, not trading signals. Prices are the venues' own.