Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Attorney General election?
Nathan Johnson (D)PolymarketOpen, closes Nov 3, 2026$3,869 traded
34%
Yes · bid 33%, ask 35%
Midpoint of the order book Langbot recorded
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
No move of three points or more on the record.
The rules
Polymarket's rules, as the venue wrote them.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Texas Attorney General election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders.
In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting.
In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
- Ticker
- pm_4222272
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2026
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
34%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:39 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 36% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 34% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Kalshi
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