Will the Democratic party win the Attorney General race in Texas?
Nathan JohnsonKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202717.7K contracts traded
36%
Yes · +10 pts in 24 h · bid 35%, ask 36%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
26% to 36% (+10 pts)Nov 2, 6:13 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
20% to 9% (−11 pts)Jul 26, 12:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
12% to 22% (+10 pts)May 28, 11:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
2% to 12% (+9.8 pts)May 14, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
25% to 2% (−23.1 pts)May 11, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as the Attorney General of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXATTYGENTX-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
34%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:39 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 36% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 34% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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