Will the Republican Party win the CA-49 House seat?
Armen Kurdian (R)PolymarketOpen, closes Nov 3, 2026$8,833 traded
2%
Yes · bid 0.5%, ask 3%
Midpoint of the order book Langbot recorded
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
No move of three points or more on the record.
The rules
Polymarket's rules, as the venue wrote them.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S.
House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
- Ticker
- pm_1282832
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2026
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
2%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:57 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 1% · left out: quote older than 5 minutes
- Polymarket 2% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Kalshi
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