Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
John E. SununuKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 20272.2M contracts traded
7%
Yes · −1.1 pts in 24 h · bid 7%, ask 7%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
18% to 14% (−4 pts)Sep 22, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
18% to 14% (−4 pts)Jun 20, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
15% to 18% (+3 pts)Jun 13, 10:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
20% to 15% (−5 pts)Jun 3, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
18% to 21% (+3.5 pts)May 26, 11:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of New Hampshire for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- SENATENH-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
6%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 7:25 AM ET. The venues are 1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 7% · weight 22%
- Polymarket 6% · weight 78%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
Test an idea on this market
Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.
Test an idea on this market