Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?
KalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 20272.2M contracts traded
31%
Yes · +4.5 pts in 24 h · bid 30%, ask 31%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
25% to 31% (+5.5 pts)Nov 2, 8:19 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
34% to 25% (−9 pts)Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
30% to 26% (−4 pts)Sep 9, 9:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
26% to 31% (+4.5 pts)Jul 21, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
30% to 24% (−6 pts)Jul 14, 9:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Dan Osborn (as an independent) is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- SENATENE-26-DOSB
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
29%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 8:35 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 31% · left out: quote older than 5 minutes
- Polymarket 29% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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