Will Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota?
Michele TafoyaKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 20274.4M contracts traded
8%
Yes · −2.1 pts in 24 h · bid 8%, ask 8%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
15% to 11% (−4 pts)Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
8% to 12% (+3.9 pts)Sep 9, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
6% to 10% (+3.6 pts)Aug 12, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
14% to 10% (−4 pts)Jun 30, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
10% to 14% (+4.5 pts)Jun 28, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Minnesota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- SENATEMN-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
7%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:24 AM ET. The venues are 2% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 8% · weight 54%
- Polymarket 6% · weight 46%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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