Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?
Democratic partyKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 20272.9M contracts traded
72%
Yes · +1 pts in 24 h · bid 71%, ask 72%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
73% to 69% (−4 pts)Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
71% to 75% (+4 pts)Sep 22, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
54% to 61% (+7 pts)Aug 21, 2:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
56% to 60% (+4 pts)Jul 8, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
58% to 61% (+3 pts)May 12, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- SENATEAK-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
72%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 7:22 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 72% · weight 100%
- Polymarket 12% · left out: no quote yet
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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