Will the Republican party win the Lt. Gov race in Vermont?
John S. RodgersKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 20279,078 contracts traded
5%
Yes · −0.5 pts in 24 h · bid 4%, ask 5%
Venue price history
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
6% to 10% (+3.5 pts)Oct 26, 11:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
19% to 14% (−4.5 pts)Sep 29, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
14% to 20% (+6 pts)Sep 25, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
21% to 14% (−6.5 pts)Sep 24, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
59% to 32% (−27 pts)Jul 3, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as the Lieutenant Governor of Vermont for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXLTGOVVT-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
4%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:38 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 5% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 4% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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