Will the Democratic party win the Lieutenant Governor race in Texas?
Vikki GoodwinKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202733.4K contracts traded
33%
Yes · +7.5 pts in 24 h · bid 32%, ask 33%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
22% to 33% (+10.5 pts)Nov 2, 6:36 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
19% to 30% (+11.2 pts)Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
56% to 25% (−30.5 pts)Aug 14, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
18% to 61% (+43 pts)Aug 11, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
17% to 7% (−10.5 pts)May 27, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as the Lieutenant Governor of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXLTGOVTX-26-DEM
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
33%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:39 AM ET. The venues are 0% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 33% · weight 71%
- Polymarket 33% · weight 29%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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