Will Republican win the House race for TX-24?
Beth Van DuyneKalshiSettled Yes23.6K contracts traded
Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close · ring: settled Yes (100%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
92% to 96% (+3.9 pts)Oct 22, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
84% to 90% (+5.5 pts)Aug 13, 6:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
88% to 84% (−4 pts)Aug 12, 8:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
81% to 90% (+9 pts)Jul 23, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
74% to 81% (+7 pts)Jul 3, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for TX-24 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXHOUSERACE-TX24-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
–
No venue has a usable quote right now. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi – · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 99.9% · left out: quote older than 5 minutes
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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