Will Republican win the House race for TX-22?
Trever NehlsKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027964 contracts traded
97%
Yes · +2.1 pts in 24 h · bid 94%, ask 99%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
91% to 96% (+4.3 pts)Oct 11, 10:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
94% to 90% (−3.7 pts)Aug 13, 12:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
79% to 91% (+11.6 pts)Jul 21, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
84% to 79% (−5.2 pts)May 27, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
89% to 84% (−4.5 pts)May 23, 3:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for TX-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXHOUSERACE-TX22-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
97%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 4, 3:13 PM ET. The venues are 0.4% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 97% · weight 64%
- Polymarket 96% · weight 36%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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