Will Republican win the House race for TX-10?
Chris GoberKalshiSettled Yes3,791 contracts traded
Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close · ring: settled Yes (100%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
91% to 80% (−11 pts)Jun 19, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
82% to 91% (+9.1 pts)Jun 15, 8:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
91% to 82% (−8.1 pts)Jun 6, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
83% to 91% (+7.8 pts)Jun 5, 12:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
77% to 89% (+12.5 pts)May 27, 12:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for TX-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXHOUSERACE-TX10-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
–
No venue has a usable quote right now. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi – · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket – · left out: quote older than 5 minutes
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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