Will Democratic win the House race for RI-01?
Gabe AmoKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027573 contracts traded
98%
Yes · +0.3 pts in 24 h · bid 97%, ask 99%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
96% to 99% (+3.3 pts)Aug 20, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
91% to 96% (+4.7 pts)Jun 23, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
97% to 90% (−7.4 pts)May 22, 10:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for RI-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXHOUSERACE-RI01-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
–
No venue has a usable quote right now. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi – · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket – · left out: one side of the book empty
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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