Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-06?
Frank PalloneKalshiSettled Yes593 contracts traded
Yes
Settled Nov 3, 2026
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close · ring: settled Yes (100%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
88% to 94% (+6 pts)Jun 29, 11:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
96% to 88% (−8.1 pts)Jun 28, 1:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
84% to 96% (+12.7 pts)Jun 26, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
82% to 87% (+4.7 pts)Jun 20, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
90% to 82% (−7.9 pts)Jun 19, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for NJ-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXHOUSERACE-NJ06-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
–
No venue has a usable quote right now. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi – · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket – · left out: quote older than 5 minutes
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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