Will Democratic win the House race for MS-03?
Michael ChiaradioKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 20271,848 contracts traded
1%
Yes · −0.6 pts in 24 h · bid 0.4%, ask 2%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
No move of three points or more on the record.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for MS-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXHOUSERACE-MS03-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
1%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:47 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 1% · weight 100%
- Polymarket – · left out: one side of the book empty
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
Test an idea on this market
Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.
Test an idea on this market