Will Democratic win the House race for MD-01?
Dan SchwartzKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027100K contracts traded
14%
Yes · 0 pts in 24 h · bid 13%, ask 14%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
39% to 8% (−31 pts)Sep 24, 6:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
8% to 39% (+30.7 pts)Sep 22, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
21% to 36% (+15.5 pts)May 25, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
38% to 21% (−17.4 pts)May 22, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
23% to 43% (+20.5 pts)May 13, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for MD-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXHOUSERACE-MD01-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
13%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:39 AM ET. The venues are 0.5% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 14% · weight 84%
- Polymarket 13% · weight 16%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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