Will Republican win the House race for FL-22?
Casey AskarKalshiSettled No80.3K contracts traded
No
Settled Nov 3, 2026
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close · ring: settled No (0%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
28% to 0.6% (−26.9 pts)Nov 3, 9:42 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
38% to 30% (−8.5 pts)Oct 30, 8:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
52% to 81% (+29 pts)Jul 17, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
45% to 56% (+11 pts)Jun 25, 12:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
40% to 48% (+8 pts)May 22, 12:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for FL-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXHOUSERACE-FL22-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
–
No venue has a usable quote right now. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi – · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 0.3% · left out: quote older than 5 minutes
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
Test an idea on this market
Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.
Test an idea on this market