Will Republican win the House race for FL-12?
Gus BilirakisKalshiSettled Yes26K contracts traded
Yes
Settled Nov 3, 2026
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close · ring: settled Yes (100%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
87% to 98% (+11 pts)Nov 3, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
90% to 84% (−5.5 pts)Oct 22, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
89% to 94% (+5.1 pts)Oct 16, 9:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
72% to 88% (+15.5 pts)Jul 18, 12:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
90% to 72% (−17.5 pts)May 27, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for FL-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- KXHOUSERACE-FL12-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
–
No venue has a usable quote right now. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi – · left out: quote older than 5 minutes
- Polymarket 99.9% · left out: quote older than 5 minutes
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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