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Will Google release Gemini 4 before Oct 16, 2026?

KalshiSettled Yes231K contracts traded

Yes

Settled Oct 13, 2026

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100%50%0%
12:49:09 PM ET

Opening and final price only · ring: settled Yes (100%), not a trade

What moved it

The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.

Langbot has the opening and final price for this market, not the path between them.

The rules

Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.

If Google releases Gemini 4 before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

The market on Kalshi

Ticker
KXGEMINI-GEM4-26OCT16
Closes
Oct 13, 2026

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