Will a Democrat win the House race for WI-3?
Rebecca CookeKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027207K contracts traded
89%
Yes · 0 pts in 24 h · bid 88%, ask 89%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
78% to 88% (+10.5 pts)Oct 28, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
82% to 76% (−6 pts)Aug 25, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
71% to 82% (+11.5 pts)Aug 23, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
87% to 71% (−15.5 pts)Aug 13, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
70% to 87% (+17 pts)Aug 11, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for WI-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSEWI3-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
87%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:30 AM ET. The venues are 2% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 89% · weight 47%
- Polymarket 87% · weight 53%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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