Will Republican win the House race for WI-1?
Bryan SteilKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202797.5K contracts traded
51%
Yes · +1 pts in 24 h · bid 50%, ask 51%
Venue price history
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
61% to 70% (+8.5 pts)Aug 16, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
72% to 61% (−11 pts)Aug 14, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
78% to 66% (−12.5 pts)May 26, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
51% to 78% (+27 pts)May 25, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
67% to 51% (−16 pts)May 23, 6:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for WI-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSEWI1-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
49%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:38 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 51% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 49% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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