Will Republican win the House race for WA-3?
John BraunKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027218K contracts traded
10%
Yes · −0.5 pts in 24 h · bid 9%, ask 11%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
22% to 10% (−11.7 pts)Aug 5, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
27% to 21% (−6 pts)Jul 18, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
19% to 29% (+10.5 pts)Jul 13, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
16% to 20% (+4 pts)Jun 30, 3:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
21% to 16% (−5 pts)Jun 26, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for WA-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSEWA3-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
10%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:30 AM ET. The venues are 0.5% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 10% · weight 56%
- Polymarket 10% · weight 44%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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