Will Republican win the House race for TX-34?
Eric FloresKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202769.8K contracts traded
12%
Yes · +1 pts in 24 h · bid 11%, ask 12%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
27% to 13% (−13.9 pts)Sep 3, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
42% to 30% (−11.5 pts)Aug 16, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
27% to 42% (+15 pts)Aug 14, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
44% to 27% (−17 pts)Aug 13, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
21% to 44% (+23 pts)Aug 11, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for TX-34 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSETX34-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
11%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 9:55 AM ET. The venues are 1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 12% · weight 82%
- Polymarket 11% · weight 18%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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