Will Democratic win the House race for TX-15?
Bobby PulidoKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027692K contracts traded
89%
Yes · −1.5 pts in 24 h · bid 88%, ask 89%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
74% to 82% (+8.5 pts)Oct 1, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
65% to 44% (−21 pts)Aug 12, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
55% to 66% (+10.5 pts)Aug 5, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
43% to 55% (+11.5 pts)Jul 27, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
54% to 44% (−10 pts)Jul 18, 3:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for TX-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSETX15-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
89%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:24 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 89% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 89% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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