Will a Democrat win the House race for OH-1?
Greg LandsmanKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202745.2K contracts traded
94%
Yes · −0.9 pts in 24 h · bid 93%, ask 94%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
75% to 85% (+10 pts)Aug 28, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
89% to 75% (−14.5 pts)Aug 18, 10:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
78% to 88% (+10 pts)Aug 15, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
90% to 78% (−11.5 pts)Aug 14, 12:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
86% to 95% (+9.2 pts)Aug 8, 3:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for OH-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSEOH1-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
94%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:44 AM ET. The venues are 1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 94% · weight 89%
- Polymarket 95% · weight 11%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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