Will Democratic win the House race for NY-4?
Laura GillenKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202760K contracts traded
93%
Yes · +1.4 pts in 24 h · bid 93%, ask 93%
Venue price history
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
83% to 89% (+6.1 pts)Jul 21, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
81% to 74% (−7 pts)Jun 8, 3:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
50% to 80% (+30.4 pts)Jun 2, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
66% to 50% (−15.9 pts)May 24, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
76% to 66% (−10.5 pts)May 23, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for NY-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSENY4-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
94%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:41 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 93% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 94% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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