Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-3?
Tom SuozziKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027208K contracts traded
92%
Yes · +1.8 pts in 24 h · bid 92%, ask 92%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
50% to 85% (+35.3 pts)Aug 16, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
93% to 50% (−43 pts)Aug 15, 2:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
47% to 81% (+34.5 pts)Jun 15, 5:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
48% to 38% (−9.5 pts)May 27, 11:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
81% to 49% (−32 pts)May 23, 9:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for NY-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSENY3-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
91%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:29 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 92% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 91% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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