Will a Republican win the House race for NY-22?
Kailee BullerKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202712.7K contracts traded
3%
Yes · +0.5 pts in 24 h · bid 1%, ask 4%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
89% to 11% (−78 pts)Jun 27, 11:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
22% to 89% (+67.2 pts)Jun 20, 2:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
50% to 22% (−27.8 pts)Jun 19, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
37% to 50% (+13.1 pts)Jun 8, 3:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
49% to 37% (−12.5 pts)Jun 7, 6:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for NY-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSENY22-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
2%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:58 AM ET. The venues are 0.1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 2% · weight 68%
- Polymarket 2% · weight 32%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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