Will Republican win the House race for NY-17?
Mike LawlerKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027558K contracts traded
42%
Yes · +4.5 pts in 24 h · bid 41%, ask 42%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
48% to 37% (−11 pts)Sep 18, 8:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
41% to 31% (−9.5 pts)Jul 31, 12:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
31% to 39% (+7.5 pts)Jul 24, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
32% to 19% (−13 pts)Jul 16, 1:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
38% to 31% (−7.5 pts)Jun 25, 11:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for NY-17 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSENY17-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
41%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:24 AM ET. The venues are 2% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 42% · weight 93%
- Polymarket 40% · weight 7%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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