Will Democratic win the House race for MT-1?
Sam ForstagKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027436K contracts traded
57%
Yes · −0.5 pts in 24 h · bid 57%, ask 58%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
45% to 60% (+15.5 pts)Oct 30, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
28% to 42% (+14 pts)Sep 3, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
45% to 28% (−17 pts)Sep 1, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
49% to 38% (−11.5 pts)Aug 21, 1:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
35% to 49% (+14 pts)Aug 19, 12:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for MT-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSEMT1-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
58%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 2:35 PM ET. The venues are 1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 57% · weight 92%
- Polymarket 59% · weight 8%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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