Will Republican win the House race for MI-4?
Bill HuizengaKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202778.6K contracts traded
40%
Yes · +1 pts in 24 h · bid 39%, ask 40%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
43% to 54% (+11.5 pts)Sep 18, 6:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
54% to 43% (−11.5 pts)Sep 17, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
66% to 48% (−18.5 pts)Aug 15, 9:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
32% to 66% (+34 pts)Aug 13, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
64% to 32% (−31.5 pts)Aug 12, 10:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for MI-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSEMI4-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
40%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:40 AM ET. The venues are 2% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 40% · weight 67%
- Polymarket 41% · weight 33%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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