Will Republican win the House race for FL-13?
Anna Paulina LunaKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202795.5K contracts traded
67%
Yes · +4.5 pts in 24 h · bid 66%, ask 67%
Venue price history
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
55% to 75% (+19.5 pts)Aug 28, 8:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
73% to 55% (−17.5 pts)Aug 27, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
79% to 59% (−20 pts)Aug 22, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
48% to 83% (+34.5 pts)Aug 13, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
78% to 48% (−29.5 pts)Aug 12, 11:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for FL-13 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSEFL13-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
66%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:39 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 67% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 66% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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