Will Democratic win the House race for CO-8?
Manny RutinelKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202729.1K contracts traded
88%
Yes · +1 pts in 24 h · bid 87%, ask 88%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
78% to 84% (+6.5 pts)Sep 17, 1:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
86% to 79% (−6.5 pts)Aug 28, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
79% to 86% (+7 pts)Aug 27, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
76% to 84% (+7.5 pts)Jul 7, 9:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
70% to 79% (+8.5 pts)Jul 2, 8:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for CO-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSECO8-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
88%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:55 AM ET. The venues are 0% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 88% · weight 56%
- Polymarket 88% · weight 44%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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