Will Democratic win the House race for CA-45?
Derek TranKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202731.8K contracts traded
93%
Yes · −0.1 pts in 24 h · bid 93%, ask 93%
Venue price history
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
86% to 94% (+8.1 pts)Aug 25, 12:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
93% to 86% (−7.3 pts)Aug 19, 1:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
93% to 86% (−7.2 pts)Aug 11, 11:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
81% to 88% (+7 pts)Jul 28, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
83% to 91% (+7.8 pts)Jun 21, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for CA-45 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSECA45-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
95%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:51 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 93% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 95% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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