Will Democratic win the House race for CA-22?
Randy VillegasKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202767.8K contracts traded
92%
Yes · +1.1 pts in 24 h · bid 92%, ask 93%
Venue price history
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
93% to 85% (−8.5 pts)Aug 26, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
79% to 86% (+7 pts)Jul 20, 5:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
69% to 75% (+6 pts)Jun 9, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
54% to 66% (+12.5 pts)May 31, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
68% to 45% (−23.5 pts)May 22, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for CA-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSECA22-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
94%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:40 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 92% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 94% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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