Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-21?
Jim CostaKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202714.4K contracts traded
95%
Yes · 0 pts in 24 h · bid 95%, ask 95%
Venue price history
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
83% to 86% (+3 pts)Jun 27, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
89% to 83% (−5.5 pts)Jun 26, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
83% to 89% (+5.6 pts)Jun 21, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
86% to 83% (−3 pts)Jun 11, 3:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
83% to 86% (+3.5 pts)May 23, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the House member sworn in for CA-21 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSECA21-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
96%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 7:18 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 95% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 96% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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