Will Republican win the House race for AK-AL?
Nick Begich IIIKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202743.3K contracts traded
79%
Yes · −2.5 pts in 24 h · bid 78%, ask 79%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
85% to 79% (−6.5 pts)Aug 30, 5:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
79% to 85% (+6.5 pts)Aug 28, 9:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
78% to 84% (+6.5 pts)Aug 17, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
88% to 82% (−5.5 pts)Jul 28, 2:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
78% to 83% (+5 pts)Jun 5, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a member of the Republican party is sworn in for AK-AL for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- HOUSEAKAL-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
79%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 3, 1:34 AM ET. The venues are 1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 79% · weight 79%
- Polymarket 78% · weight 21%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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