Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin
David CrowleyKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027645K contracts traded
83%
Yes · −0.5 pts in 24 h · bid 82%, ask 83%
Venue price history
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
78% to 85% (+7 pts)Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
38% to 77% (+39 pts)Aug 13, 6:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
49% to 42% (−7 pts)Aug 5, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
65% to 60% (−5 pts)Jul 20, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
79% to 74% (−5.5 pts)Jun 22, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Wisconsin pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- GOVPARTYWI-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
85%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 5:52 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 83% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 85% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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