Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
Vivek RamaswamyKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 20275.1M contracts traded
19%
Yes · −1.5 pts in 24 h · bid 18%, ask 19%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
25% to 17% (−8 pts)Oct 22, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
31% to 25% (−6 pts)Oct 21, 5:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
42% to 47% (+4.5 pts)Sep 9, 5:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
56% to 51% (−5 pts)Jul 27, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
50% to 55% (+5.5 pts)Jun 2, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Ohio pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- GOVPARTYOH-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
19%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:24 AM ET. The venues are 0% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 19% · weight 87%
- Polymarket 19% · weight 13%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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