Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Mexico
Deb HaalandKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202781K contracts traded
94%
Yes · −0.4 pts in 24 h · bid 94%, ask 94%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
88% to 91% (+3 pts)Aug 10, 3:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
94% to 89% (−4.5 pts)Jul 25, 11:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
86% to 91% (+5.3 pts)Jul 3, 12:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
92% to 84% (−8.3 pts)Jun 5, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New Mexico pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- GOVPARTYNM-26-D
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
96%
Yes, across 1 venue, as of Nov 2, 6:39 AM ET. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 94% · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket 96% · weight 100%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
Test an idea on this market
Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.
Test an idea on this market