Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Hampshire
Kelly AyotteKalshiOpen, closes Nov 7, 2029230K contracts traded
84%
Yes · −9.2 pts in 24 h · bid 83%, ask 84%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
93% to 84% (−9.1 pts)Nov 2, 6:25 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
88% to 82% (−6.5 pts)Aug 19, 1:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
75% to 86% (+11.5 pts)Aug 14, 12:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
84% to 75% (−9 pts)Aug 13, 4:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
80% to 88% (+8 pts)Aug 3, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of New Hampshire pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- GOVPARTYNH-28-R
- Closes
- Nov 7, 2029
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
84%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:28 AM ET. The venues are 1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 84% · weight 100%
- Polymarket 85% · weight 0%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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