Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan
John JamesKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027375K contracts traded
7%
Yes · −1.4 pts in 24 h · bid 7%, ask 7%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
20% to 17% (−3.5 pts)Jul 2, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
13% to 18% (+5 pts)Jun 30, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
13% to 17% (+4 pts)Jun 24, 12:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
12% to 15% (+3 pts)May 29, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
16% to 13% (−3 pts)May 12, 10:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Michigan pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- GOVPARTYMI-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
6%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 8:07 AM ET. The venues are 2% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 7% · weight 56%
- Polymarket 5% · weight 44%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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