Will Mike Duggan (Independent) win the governorship in Michigan
KalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202774.8K contracts traded
0.3%
Yes · +0.1 pts in 24 h · bid 0%, ask 0.1%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
14% to 0.7% (−13.8 pts)May 22, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
18% to 14% (−3.5 pts)May 20, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
14% to 20% (+6 pts)May 18, 1:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
19% to 16% (−3 pts)May 14, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Mike Duggan is inaugurated as the governor of Michigan pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- GOVPARTYMI-26-MD
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
–
No venue has a usable quote right now. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi – · left out: no quote yet
- Polymarket – · left out: one side of the book empty
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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