Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kansas
Ty MastersonKalshiOpen, closes Jan 14, 2028198K contracts traded
70%
Yes · −5.5 pts in 24 h · bid 69%, ask 70%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
80% to 58% (−22 pts)Aug 11, 3:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
61% to 72% (+11 pts)Jul 4, 2:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
71% to 61% (−10 pts)Jul 3, 3:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
71% to 59% (−11.5 pts)Jun 22, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
74% to 65% (−9 pts)May 28, 5:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Kansas pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- GOVPARTYKS-27-R
- Closes
- Jan 14, 2028
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
70%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 10:12 AM ET. The venues are 0% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 70% · weight 55%
- Polymarket 70% · weight 45%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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