Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida
Byron DonaldsKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 20275.7M contracts traded
62%
Yes · −3.5 pts in 24 h · bid 61%, ask 62%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
70% to 64% (−6 pts)Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
79% to 72% (−7 pts)Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
78% to 82% (+4 pts)Oct 18, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
74% to 79% (+5.5 pts)Sep 25, 11:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
81% to 77% (−4 pts)May 29, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Florida pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- GOVPARTYFL-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
62%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:24 AM ET. The venues are 1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 62% · weight 90%
- Polymarket 63% · weight 10%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
Test an idea on this market
Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.
Test an idea on this market