Will the Republican party win the governorship in Alabama
Tommy TubervilleKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 202792.3K contracts traded
93%
Yes · −0.6 pts in 24 h · bid 93%, ask 94%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
95% to 91% (−3.9 pts)Aug 29, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
90% to 95% (+4.7 pts)Aug 25, 11:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
95% to 90% (−4.9 pts)Aug 19, 6:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
90% to 95% (+4.3 pts)Aug 10, 5:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
92% to 88% (−4 pts)Jul 21, 9:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Alabama pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
See full rules for details.
- Ticker
- GOVPARTYAL-26-R
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
93%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:39 AM ET. The venues are 1% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 93% · weight 94%
- Polymarket 94% · weight 6%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
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