Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
Democratic PartyKalshiOpen, closes Feb 1, 20278.8M contracts traded
74%
Yes · +1.5 pts in 24 h · bid 73%, ask 74%
Venue price history, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
67% to 72% (+5 pts)Oct 31, 11:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
66% to 62% (−4 pts)Oct 25, 7:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
62% to 66% (+4 pts)Oct 21, 3:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
65% to 60% (−5 pts)Sep 25, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
52% to 56% (+4 pts)Sep 16, 3:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S.
Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S.
Senate.
See full rules for details.
Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.
- Ticker
- CONTROLS-2026-D
- Closes
- Feb 1, 2027
- Category
- Elections
Langbot consolidated probability
73%
Yes, across 2 venues, as of Nov 2, 6:23 AM ET. The venues are 2% apart. Fees not included. How it is measured
- Kalshi 74% · weight 85%
- Polymarket 72% · weight 15%
A published measurement: the liquidity-weighted average of the YES mids of equivalent markets on different venues, stale and wide quotes left out, fees not included. Not advice, not a signal.
The same question on Polymarket
Test an idea on this market
Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.
Test an idea on this market